Work by PKthe hub
The index. One page, prose first, saying what I'm working on and where to find it. No feed, no funnel — a person and their current projects, kept honest by being public.
Patrick King, CMT · an interactive essay
On cycles, timing, and the discipline of building something in public every single week.
The premise
Most charts get read left to right as a story about price: it went up, it went down, someone was right, someone wasn't. That's the surface. Underneath it, markets keep time. Shorter rhythms nest inside longer ones, and the shape you see on any chart is the sum of rhythms you can't see individually.
That's not mysticism, it's arithmetic. Add a slow wave, a medium wave, and a fast wave and you get something lopsided, noisy, alive — something that looks like a market. Cycle analysis runs that arithmetic backwards: take the composite apart, find where each rhythm sits in its swing, and ask what that says about the next low.
I spent about twenty years inside institutional capital markets before earning the CMT charter and starting to do this work in the open. What follows is a demonstration of the idea, as methodology rather than advice. Two sections down you can take the wave apart yourself — and, if you want, hear it.
A trend is just the part of a cycle too long to see from where you're standing.
The working hypothesis
The instrument
The line below looks like a price chart. It's three rhythms added together: a long trend swell, an intermediate cycle, and a short trading cycle. Switch each one off and the market simplifies. Move your pointer across it and the panel reads out what each rhythm contributes at that moment, and how far the intermediate cycle is through its swing.
The long wave. Inside one screen it just reads as "the trend."
The rhythm that sets the lows worth planning around.
Most of what feels like noise is just this, doing its job.
Drag right and crests arrive late in each swing — upward pressure. Left is the opposite.
Each rhythm becomes a pitch — slow wave low, trading cycle high. Toggle a component and the chord changes. Quiet by design.
Everything here is synthetic: three sine functions and a slider. That's the point. If arithmetic this simple produces a line you'd mistake for a chart, it's worth asking how much of a real chart is rhythm nobody has decomposed yet.
The work
Everything I make in public lives in one of three places. They share a palette, a typeface, and a rule: ship on rhythm, not on mood.
The index. One page, prose first, saying what I'm working on and where to find it. No feed, no funnel — a person and their current projects, kept honest by being public.
A weekly log of the actual work: what got built, what broke, what I almost sent and didn't. The constraint is the product — every week, whether the week was impressive or not.
Market research built on cycle methodology. The archive grows every day whether anything publishes or not; issues go out only when the analysis clears the bar.
Operating rules
No infrastructure without a named requirement. Every pipeline, repo, and automation answers to a specific analytical or publishing need, or it doesn't get built.
The model interprets; it never decides. Language models narrate a frozen, validated state. They get no authority over data, calculations, signals, or thresholds.
Working product now, perfection later. A rough thing that shipped teaches more than a polished thing that didn't.
Read before writing. Guessing at what's in a file, a chart, or a claim is how the same failure happens twice.
The streak is the point. Publishing weekly isn't the goal wearing a schedule. The schedule is the goal.