← workbypk.com WaveMiner · Research note 01 · AI data-center buildout

AI Data Center Spend Map

Where each dollar of AI data-center capex goes, which of that spending comes back every year, and which service and supply niches a small operator could realistically enter. Built from filings, cost models and trade sources, with every figure tagged to its source and evidence tier.

Patrick · workbypk.comPublished 24 Sep 2026 · figures as of that dateEvidence tiers A–D explained under Sources

Top of funnel

Follow $1 billion

The four largest hyperscalers are guiding to roughly $710–733B of 2026 capex, with $301B already spent in the first half; Goldman forecasts $1.01T for 2027.^4,5 Epoch AI's cost model of a typical 1 GW AI campus splits the money like this.¹

Up-front capex, per $1BHatched = out of reach for a small operator

$559M servers (GPU systems)

$130M networking

$302M facility (the reachable slice)

$9M land + utility works

The $302M facility slice, by tradeTurner & Townsend 2025 cost index ranges, midpoints shown

$145–163M electrical (48–54%)

$66–100M mechanical (22–33%)

$27–42M core & shell (9–14%)

~$30M GC fees (~10%)

Cost shares from ConstructConnect's summary of the Turner & Townsend index.² Dollar ranges are those shares applied to Epoch's facility figure.

Then every year after, per $1B of capexSeparate scale · about $24M a year, 2.4% of capex

$15.7M energy

$3.8M taxes

$3.2M maintenance (the service pool)

$1.1M site labor

$0.2M water

Epoch models $0.9B a year of operating cost on $38B of capex for a stylized 1 GW hyperscaler campus, with 5-year IT and 14-year facility lives.¹ Real sites vary with location, design and power strategy.

What the numbers say

Five readings

69¢ of each dollar is out of reach.
Servers and networking take $689M of every $1B. A small operator competes for the $302M facility slice, and half of that is electrical.
The recurring pool is small per site but it compounds.
About $3.2M a year of maintenance per $1B of capex, growing with every megawatt energized and still flowing if new capex stalls. JLL counts 66 GW under construction in North America.³ At Epoch's $120M per GW, that is roughly $8B a year of maintenance once it is running (rough arithmetic on a stylized model).
Mundane does not mean undiscovered.
Comfort Systems' management said service work on the growing installed base of data centers could become a longer-term revenue stream.⁷ CBRE paid about $1.2B for Pearce to do UPS and generator service in-house.¹⁰ PE closed about 125 fire and life-safety deals in 2025.²⁹ The overlooked part is the small end: hundreds of regional service firms with $3–25M of revenue.²¹
The build money mostly lands elsewhere.
77% of North American capacity under construction is in frontier markets like West Texas, Ohio and Louisiana.³ A Florida tracker shows 5 of the 8 projects it follows have been stopped.²⁶ A Tampa Bay business needs a second demand base, and Florida has one: 3,771 nursing homes and ALFs under a 96-hour emergency-power mandate.^23,24
The shortage has an end date.
Switchgear and transformer lead times run roughly one to five years today, with relief expected unevenly after 2028.^11,12 Supply plays should be underwritten to close when factories catch up.

The map

Fourteen places the money goes

Each row tags the phase (one-time build, installed base, or hardware refresh), how exposed it is to a capex slowdown, who is already there, and whether Florida demand exists without a data center. Open a row for the scarce input, entry route and sources. Blue-edged rows are the three being tested first.

14 of 14 shown

CategorySize signalTagsRead

Electrical contractingService · build-phase

$145–163Mper $1B of capex

Cycle: highConsolidatingFL: little

Treat as a customer and an exit comparable, not an entry.

Recurs?: No. One-time per build, so it rides the capex cycle.
Scarce input: Licensed electricians, superintendents who have already turned over a live data center, and bonding capacity. A newcomer adds none of these.¹⁷
Who's there: Comfort Systems' backlog hit $14.06B at 30 June 2026, up from $8.12B a year earlier; EMCOR's remaining performance obligations reached $17.14B, up 44%.^6,8 Both buy regional firms; Comfort closed Hunt Electric on 1 May 2026.⁷
Entry: BUY or PARTNER only.
Florida: Fort Meade in Polk County is the one approved hyperscale campus, and it faces two lawsuits and a recall.^26,44

Mechanical & cooling installationService · build-phase

$66–100Mper $1B of capex

Cycle: highConsolidatingFL: little

Same read as electrical.

Recurs?: No. Liquid cooling raises the mechanical share of each new build.
Scarce input: Pipefitters and mechanical supervisors. Steel pipe and tube prices are up 11.1% year over year.²
Who's there: The same consolidators. Comfort reported a sharp increase in mechanical-segment profitability in Q2 2026.⁷
Entry: BUY or PARTNER.

Commissioning & integrated systems testingProfessional service · build-phase

Per projectsmall slice of each build

Cycle: highSpecialist firmsFL: little

Opens doors to owners, but it is a people business you cannot staff yourself.

Recurs?: Partly. Recommissioning follows retrofits and hardware refreshes.
Scarce input: Commissioning engineers with completed mission-critical turnovers. One recruiter reports failed integrated systems tests delay projects by 3.8 months on average (unverified).¹⁸
Entry: PARTNER with a licensed commissioning engineer.

Mission-critical labor: staffing & trainingStaffing / training · build-phase

349k / 456knet new construction workers needed, 2026 / 2027

Cycle: highCrowdedFL: partial

Staffing is crowded. Training is the version that adds supply.

Scarce input: The people. The ABC estimates 349,000 net new workers needed in 2026 and 456,000 in 2027; NCCER projects about 41% of the construction workforce retires by 2031.^16,17
Scarce-input test: Staffing moves scarce people between projects. Training creates more of them.
Who's there: Most of the labor-shortage articles found for this map were published by staffing and recruiting firms marketing this exact service.
Entry: START (staffing) is cheap. A training pipeline is slower and capital-light, and it serves every trade in Florida, not only data centers.

Transformer & switchgear remanufacturing and surplusSupply · build-phase shortage

52–80 wk15 kV switchgear lead time (≈24 pre-pandemic)

Cycle: windowShops + brokersFL: partial

Strongest supply play. Underwrite it to close when factories catch up.

Shortage: Pad-mount transformers 40–65 weeks, substation class 75–110 weeks, generator step-up 100–150+ weeks.¹¹ Utilities, battery storage and reshored factories compete for the same gear.¹³
What reman does: Remanufactured pad-mount units ship in 1–4 weeks at 10–40% below new, per sponsored content from a remanufacturer.¹⁴
Scarce-input test: Passes. Remanufacturing adds supply of the scarce input instead of competing for it.
Who's there: Rewind and reman shops (Maddox runs five) and equipment brokers.¹⁴
Window: Relief expected unevenly after 2028.¹²
Entry: PARTNER with a rewind shop as its sourcing and sales arm, or DISTRIBUTE as a broker. Capital is medium to high: cores, test bay, inventory.

Used & rental generatorsSupply · build-phase shortage

60–75% of newused low-hour price, vs 40–50% historically

Cycle: windowDealers, brokersFL: yes

A good bolt-on to generator service. Thin on its own.

Shortage: New units of 1,250 kW and up run 52+ weeks. Load-bank-tested used units ship in 1–4 weeks. The market is pricing the value of time.¹⁵
Scarce-input test: Passes. Moves existing units to where they are needed; test documentation is the differentiator.
Florida: Hurricane season and the long-term-care mandate keep demand alive when data-center orders slow.
Entry: DISTRIBUTE, paired with testing service. Inventory needs capital.

Generator testing, load bank & fuel serviceField service · installed base

$1.8–2.4B/yrUS C&I generator service (vendor est.)

Cycle: lowFragmentedFL: yes

Top candidate. Code-mandated, fragmented, with a Florida base that does not depend on data centers.

Why it recurs: NFPA 110 requires a monthly exercise, an annual supplemental load test when monthly runs don't reach 30% load, and a full-load test every 36 months for Level 1 systems.¹⁹ Data-center practice is annual at 100% load, semiannual for Tier III/IV.²⁰
Density: A 500 MW–1 GW AI campus runs 20 to 100+ generators.²¹ Fort Meade's developer plans 100% backup generation for 1.2 GW.²⁵
Scarce input: OEM-certified technicians (12–24 months to replace one) and a master electrician license, often held by a single person.²²
Who's there: OEM dealer networks take warranty and national contracts. Independents do most day-to-day work, mostly within one metro; hundreds of regional firms run $3–25M of revenue.²¹ CBRE bought Pearce to self-perform this work.¹⁰
Price to buy: 5–7× EBITDA for $3–10M dealers; 6.5–9× for $5–20M multi-brand firms with 40–65% recurring revenue. Hurricane years can inflate EBITDA 40–80%, so normalize over five years.²²
Florida: 691 nursing homes and 3,080 ALFs must keep emergency power and fuel for 96 hours under state law.^23,24 Florida adds a state electrical license and county standby permits.²²
Entry: BUY or PARTNER.

UPS battery testing & replacementField service · installed base

3–5 yrreal-world VRLA replacement cycle

Cycle: lowOEM-heavy for Li-ionFL: partial

VRLA work shrinks slowly. The lithium service gap is the opening.

Why it recurs: VRLA strings are replaced every 3–5 years in real conditions; lithium-ion lasts 8–12.²⁷
Shift: Lithium-ion is now the default for new builds. Any UPS contractor can service VRLA, but lithium service is concentrated with OEMs and large integrators.²⁷
Scarce input: Lithium certification and OEM access.
Entry: Add-on to a generator service business.

Fire suppression inspection, testing & maintenanceField service · installed base

5–9× EBITDArecurring-mix firms, $5–20M revenue

Cycle: lowPE roll-upFL: yes

Great economics that PE has already found. Use as an exit comparable or an add-on line.

Why it recurs: NFPA 2001 clean-agent systems need monthly visual checks, semiannual cylinder weighing, an annual functional test that confirms HVAC shutdown, periodic hydrostatic retests, and an enclosure integrity test after any room change. Lithium battery rooms add an NFPA 855 review.²⁸
Who's there: Pye-Barker made 57 acquisitions in 2025. Sector deals rose 66.7% to about 125, and no firm holds more than 5% share.²⁹

Liquid-cooling fluid & CDU serviceField service · installed base

Every 2–6 molab testing of water/glycol coolant

Cycle: lowEarlyFL: weak today

The most AI-leveraged service. Local volume near Tampa is small for now.

Why it recurs: Coolant needs lab testing every 2–6 months (up to 12 for dielectric fluids), CDU filters need replacing, and pH drift, inhibitor depletion and microbial growth need watching.^30,31
Scarce input: Know-how. A fluid supplier says operators' facilities teams need upskilling in liquid systems, leak detection and CDU operation.³¹
Who's there: Chemical majors running service networks (the Dow Coolant Care Network), fluid labs, and CDU vendors.³²
AI test: Passes. Stronger AI means denser racks, and denser racks mean more liquid cooling.
Entry: PARTNER as a regional field-service arm for a fluid supplier.

Cooling tower water treatment & Legionella controlField service · installed base

Contractedsuppliers moving to full-service

Cycle: lowEstablishedFL: yes

Mature and general-purpose, with little data-center-specific edge.

Why it recurs: Routine disinfection and a Legionella risk-management program, typically built to ASHRAE 188.^33,42 Chemical suppliers are shifting from product sales to full service contracts.³⁴
Headwind: New AI builds are moving toward closed-loop and liquid cooling with less evaporation.³⁵
Florida: A hyperscale site in Hillsborough County would need a consumptive-use permit from the Southwest Florida Water Management District.⁴¹

Critical-environment cleaning & particle certificationService · build + installed base

ISO Class 8target cleanliness for data halls

Cycle: mixedLow barrierFL: partial

Cheapest to test and cheapest to copy.

Why it recurs: Each new hall is cleaned and particle-tested before handover, and operators run ongoing programs to ISO 14644-1 Class 8.^36,37
Claim to check: A UK cleaning vendor says OEMs such as NVIDIA and Cisco increasingly require Class 8 and that dust damage can void warranties. Unverified.³⁶
Scarce input: None, which is the problem. Margin depends on certification and documentation quality.
Entry: START with low capital.

Facility operations (FM)Operations · installed base

$4.2M/yrmaintenance + site labor per $1B

Cycle: lowMajors own itFL: partial

Sell to the FM majors, not against them.

Who's there: CBRE and JLL (acquiring SKAE Power Solutions) hold many owner relationships.^10,38 Some regional firms work as their local subcontractors.³⁹
Why it matters: Most categories above reach the owner through these firms, so their subcontractor onboarding is part of the route to a purchase order.

IT asset disposition & GPU remarketingService / resale · refresh cycle

$12.95B2026 decommissioning services (vendor-cited)

Cycle: laggedCertified playersFL: partial

Closest fit to a controls background. Research next.

Why it recurs: Hardware refresh. Epoch assumes a 5-year IT life; ITAD vendors claim 18–36 months for training-grade GPUs.^1,40 The 2022–24 GPU cohort is entering disposal now.
Requirements: R2v3 and NAID AAA certification, NIST 800-88 sanitization and serial-level chain of custody,⁴⁰ plus export-control screening for high-performance hardware.⁴³
Fit: This is controls and documentation work, the closest match of any row to the author's operations and controls background. The moat is compliance, not labor.
Entry: PARTNER with or BUY a certified ITAD firm.

Not yet researched: specialty consumables distribution such as CDU filters, coolant, battery strings and PPE (Wesco's $1.5B a quarter of data-center sales shows distribution works at scale⁹, but the niche is unmapped). Deprioritized: grounds, pest control, roofing, fencing and guard services. They are a small slice of a $3.2M-a-year maintenance pool and no data-center premium turned up.

Regional editions

The same map, read locally

The dollar split and categories don't change by city. How much money lands, which rows get stronger, and who is already there do.

Regional editionAtlantaThe busiest build market in North America. Capacity, labor, and what stays behind once the builds finish. Regional editionNorthern VirginiaThe largest installed base anywhere. Generator compliance, refresh cycles, and a build frontier moving outward.

What this changed in the method

Seven fields every opportunity card now carries

Running one real theme end to end showed what a technology-focused template misses when the opportunity is a contractor, a supplier or a service business.

phaseBuild-phase, installed base or refresh. Decides cycle exposure.
recurrence_driverCode mandate, wear-out interval or technology shift, with the citation.
scarce_inputWhat is short, who holds it, and whether a new entrant adds supply or just competes for it.
crowdingNamed consolidators, deal counts and multiples paid.
hedge_marketDemand that survives if this wave's capex halves.
geographyWhere the money physically lands versus where the founder can operate.
window_closeFor shortage plays, when supply is expected to catch up.

Credits

How this was made

WaveMiner is a personal opportunity-intelligence project: trace a technology shift to the bottleneck it creates, the buyer who pays to remove it, and the cheapest real-world test. This note is its first full test on a real theme.

Patrick's input

Developed the WaveMiner concept and specification: evidence, then bottleneck, workflow, buyer, experiment and a build-or-kill decision, instead of a news digest or an idea generator.
Set the evidence rules: sources graded A–D, every claim tied to a source, explicit kill criteria, and “no material change” counted as a valid result.
Widened the scope from technology companies to any business whose demand rises because of the wave: contractors, suppliers, field service, staffing, distribution and acquisitions. The north star is to own something whose demand grows as AI and robotics keep expanding.
Pointed the search at the mundane corners that most people are not looking at.
Chose to run one real theme end to end, the AI data-center buildout, before automating anything.
Treats direct conversations with operators, contractors and advisors as the real test, so customer evidence outranks research.

Claude's role

Stress-tested the specification and suggested additions: capex-cycle exposure, the scarce-input test, geography and hedge markets.
Gathered and read the sources, graded each one, ran the arithmetic and built this page.
Flagged vendor-sourced and unverified claims so they get checked before anything is acted on.

Claude is Anthropic's AI model. All research was directed and reviewed by Patrick.

Next step: conversations with operators and contractors to test the leading candidates.

Provenance

Sources

Tier A primary · B high-quality analysis · C industry reporting · D vendor marketing or weak signal. A D-tier source can suggest a lead but cannot validate it on its own.

Data files: sources.csv (every source, its tier and what it supports) · spend-per-1b.csv (the figures behind the bars).